Former Wisconsin QB one of ESPN's 'Most Important Players to 2024 CFP Race' (2024)

Ben Kenney

August 7, 2024 8:41 am CT

Former Wisconsin Badgers and current Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz is one of the most important players in the 2024 College Football Playoff race, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

It is not due to him being a favorite to win the Heisman, or to Florida‘s potential for a Cinderella season. Mertz has the 49th-shortest odds to win the award, ranked behind Wisconsin’s projected starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, and the Gators’ preseason win total is only 4.5.

Related: Wisconsin unranked in preseason US LBM Coaches Poll for first time since 2016

It is instead due to the Gators’ gauntlet schedule and their potential to ruin the playoff-caliber seasons of top contenders. Florida opens the season against Miami, then also faces , Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. That is eight of 12 games against teams that will be picked to make the playoff.

So if Mertz improves upon his 2023 output of 73% completion, 2,903 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has a few peak games mixed in, he could have a significant say in who does and who does not make the 2024 College Football Playoff.

* Will Howard has the easiest and hardest job in the sport
* Whole lotta faith in Cam Ward
* Title Game Donovan Edwards needs to show up every game
* Lots of upset shots for King and Mertz!
* LUUUUUUUUUUUTHERRRRRRR
THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS OF 2024:https://t.co/KIaqcnR1zO
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 7, 2024

Here’s what Connelly wrote about Mertz’s party-spoiling ability in 2024:

Florida’s schedule is one of thehardest the sport has seen; the Gators will face the teams projected first, fourth, eighth, ninth, 12th, 13th, 16th, 19th and 25th in SP+, and while they’ll have to be awfully good just to reach bowl eligibility, they’re going to be more than capable of pulling an upset or two. Mertz could end up splitting some time with five-star freshman DJ Lagway. But if Florida pulls a major upset or two, Mertz will likely be the catalyst.

This is certainly a different dynamic than many foresaw when Mertz threw for 248 yards and 5 touchdowns in his debut with the Badgers in 2020. It has been a long road to his sixth collegiate season — his final year of eligibility.

It would be an interesting final act and somewhat of a full-circle moment if he can set the sport on fire with a few 90%-completion, 5-touchdown performances in Florida upset wins over Georgia, Texas or others. It would effectively tie together the two ends of what has been an up-and-down career.

Here’s a look at that career progression, from his debut as a true freshman in 2019, to setting records against Illinois in 2020, to struggling in 2021, to transferring to Florida in 2023 to his current preparation for the 2024 season:

2019 debut vs. Kent State

Oct 5, 2019; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) looks to throw during…

Oct 5, 2019; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) looks to throw during the fourth quarter against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2020 record-setting day vs. Illinois

Oct 23, 2020; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) throws a pass during…